Howard Reiter, professor emeritus of political science, is an expert on American politics who studies political parties and elections. In his recent book, Counter Realignment: Political Change in the Northeastern United States, he and co-author Jeffrey M. Stonecash, Maxwell Professor at Syracuse University, analyze how the Northeast, once heavily Republican, became a Democratic stronghold, while the South, once staunchly Democratic, turned to the Republicans.

“These developments can be attributed in part to demographic and social changes … but also to the effects of deliberate strategies by party elites,” they write.

The change has had dramatic effects, they found. If the Republicans had retained their base in the Northeast, there would have been no Florida debacle in the 2000 presidential election – George W. Bush would have won with 360 electoral votes instead of 271.

To an untrained eye, it appears that the nation is moving to the right. We have seen the growth of the Tea Party, for example, and we have seen states that once were solidly “blue,” like Ohio, become swing states or even “red.” Does all of this shifting keep the country balanced?

To some extent. But left and right are relative. Are populists on the right or left? It’s tough to assess exactly where we are, much less predict the future. So much will depend on a few key factors: the state of the economy, how wars are going, and terrorist threats. In the background will be the long-term trends: Will the New Deal Coalition be revived, and will there be a kind of social democracy? Will a right-wing backlash à la Tea Party be emboldened? And where will the independents go? All these will be elements of the next era in U.S. politics. I wish I were a better prognosticator and knew.

Reproductive rights, public employee unions, and “entitlement” programs are all threatened at the federal and state levels. Is this just part of a normal cycle or is there something else going on here?

Part of the normal cycle is to have these disruptions. We just have to keep in perspective how lasting they are. We seem to be undergoing a major reassessment of the proper role of the state, which happens about once in a generation.

The gap between the haves and the have nots has been growing, exacerbated by the poor economy. What political implications does this have?

It’s probably helping the right. Fear is a powerful motivator.

Do you think that we are in a cycle of single-term presidents, senators, and congress people?

We’ll know better in 2012. I suspect Obama will do okay.

The changes in voting patterns have become entrenched, Reiter argues, and will be hard to reverse. Learn more.