{"id":108660,"date":"2016-01-28T09:18:03","date_gmt":"2016-01-28T14:18:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/?p=108660"},"modified":"2016-02-01T14:37:57","modified_gmt":"2016-02-01T19:37:57","slug":"making-sense-of-the-polls-in-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/2016\/01\/making-sense-of-the-polls-in-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"Making Sense of the Polls in 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>As voters in the Iowa caucus (Feb. 1) and New Hampshire primary (Feb. 9) prepare to make their choices for presidential nominees in the Democratic and Republican parties, the ultimate outcome of the election is still very much in doubt. With new polls every day, occasionally widely at variance with each other, getting a clear picture of the race is challenging. Jennifer Necci Dineen, a faculty member in the Department of Public Policy who directs the Graduate Program in Survey Research, explains why it\u2019s so hard for pollsters, and how the rest of us should read opinion survey results.<\/em><\/p>\n<aside class=\"grey-sidebar floating-sidebar col-xs-12 col-sm-4\">\n  <\/p>\n<h3>About the Expert<\/h3>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/jnd_2011_headshot-300x298.jpg\" alt=\"jnd_2011_headshot\" width=\"300\" height=\"298\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-108831 img-responsive lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/jnd_2011_headshot.jpg 300w, https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/jnd_2011_headshot-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/jnd_2011_headshot-50x50.jpg 50w, https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/jnd_2011_headshot-100x100.jpg 100w, https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/jnd_2011_headshot-32x32.jpg 32w, https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/jnd_2011_headshot-64x64.jpg 64w, https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/jnd_2011_headshot-96x96.jpg 96w, https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/jnd_2011_headshot-128x128.jpg 128w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 300px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 300\/298;\" \/><br \/>\nJennifer Necci Dineen<br \/>\n860 570-9223<br \/>\n<a href=\"mailto:jennifer.dineen@uconn.edu\">jennifer.dineen@uconn.edu<\/a><\/p>\n<p>An expert on polling &#8212; the use of scientifically-grounded methodology to provide valuable information about the mood of the American public in a way intended to be helpful to scholars, students, and the general public alike.<\/p>\n<h3>Noteworthy<\/h3>\n<p>A faculty member in the Department of Public Policy, she directs and teaches in the Graduate Program in Survey Research. Prior to joining UConn, she worked as a Project Director at the Center for Survey Research and Analysis directing studies for the U.S. of Labor, FDIC, Fortune 500 companies, Connecticut State Agencies, and other institutions.<\/p>\n<h3>Education<\/h3>\n<p>Ph.D. in Political Science, University of Connecticut<\/p>\n<p>B.A. in Political Science, Marist College<\/p>\n<p><\/aside>\n<p><strong>Q: With the Iowa caucus only a few days away, we still see major differences in polls in both that state and New Hampshire, as well as nationally. What accounts for that?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: It\u2019s getting increasingly difficult to answer that question, as the way we conduct polls begins to change. While telephone surveys with live interviewers are still the gold standard, since the last presidential election, the number of interactive voice response [IVR] polls \u2013 the so-called \u201crobopolls\u201d \u2013 has doubled, which is also true of Internet surveys.<\/p>\n<p>Each one of those methodologies has different complications. For example, we know that polls with live interviewers show a slight skew toward Democratic candidates. And we know that IVR polls typically have smaller numbers of undecided voters, probably because it\u2019s easier to hang up on a robot if you\u2019re not really committed to a candidate yet.<\/p>\n<p>And here\u2019s the other thing \u2013 each methodology produces a different picture of the same potential electorate. We don\u2019t know until after the election which methodology is best for that particular electorate. \u00a0So, for example, in 2008, live interviews provided the most accurate results. But in 2010, for the congressional elections, Internet surveys were the most accurate.<\/p>\n<p>So polling itself has become much more challenging, along with the factors that were always present \u2013 the formulae that different pollsters use, for instance, to account for things like how you determine who\u2019s really a \u2018likely\u2019 voter.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: The assumption of a lot of media coverage and public conversation seems to be that polls are essentially predictive, but is that really accurate?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: No, it isn\u2019t. Polls are designed to be descriptive of a particular moment. They\u2019re not supposed to be instruments that will infallibly predict the future, which is particularly true in primaries, where voter support solidifies late in the game, especially when you have as many candidates as you have in the Republican field this year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: Along the same lines, are we putting too much emphasis on these early primary states as indicators of how the rest of the primaries \u2013 and the general election itself \u2013 will turn out?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: We absolutely do put too much emphasis on the early states. In 2012, Rick Santorum won the Republican vote in the Iowa caucus, and in 2008 it was Mike Huckabee. The winners of these early contests are not necessarily going to be their party\u2019s nominee, let alone winners in the general election.<\/p>\n<p>What these primaries do, however, is help voters calibrate their sense of what\u2019s possible. This is when you see a weeding out in a large field, for instance. At the same time, a strong showing for lesser known candidates can convince voters they have a chance. A surprise second place finish in New Hampshire for John Kasich, for example, could help his campaign more than a first-place finish for Donald Trump, who\u2019s been leading in the state for months.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: So much of the conventional wisdom from the pundit class has turned out to be wrong in these early stages. Is this election particularly resistant to old maxims about voter behavior?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: I think anyone who\u2019s observed elections isn\u2019t being completely honest if they say this election isn\u2019t somewhat mystifying. The Republican field has obviously been unpredictable, but the Democratic contest has also produced surprises. I\u2019ve been saying that\u2019s not a one-candidate race for a while, and people kind of laughed at that, but now the polls are showing us this is a much more competitive primary election.<\/p>\n<p>One mistake people make is they pay a lot of attention to national polls during the primaries. Primaries are not national elections, they\u2019re a series of state elections, and that\u2019s how you have to analyze them.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: Last question: After Iowa and New Hampshire, will there be a clear picture of who the nominees will be?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: It depends, of course, but if the polling averages we see now are close to what the vote totals are in Iowa and New Hampshire, then no, there\u2019s not a clear picture, and things are very much in play both for the Republicans and the Democrats. I don\u2019t think we\u2019re going to have a firm idea of how the general election will look until St. Patrick\u2019s Day, and maybe not even then.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the first primaries just days away, a UConn survey research expert discusses how to interpret the often widely differing political polls.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68,"featured_media":108564,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_crdt_document":"","wds_primary_category":0,"wds_primary_series":0,"wds_primary_attribution":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2226,92],"tags":[],"magazine-issues":[],"coauthors":[1902],"class_list":["post-108660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-clas","category-uconn-hartford"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-05-25 06:18:59","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108660","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/users\/68"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108660"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108660\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":108833,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108660\/revisions\/108833"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/media\/108564"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108660"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108660"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108660"},{"taxonomy":"magazine-issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/magazine-issues?post=108660"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=108660"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}