President Donald Trump received both pageantry and a warm reception on his first trip to the Middle East.<\/p>\n
Whether bowing his head to\u00a0receive\u00a0the King Abdulaziz al Saud Collar from Saudi Arabian King Salman,\u00a0gathering\u00a0around the \u201cglowing orb\u201d at the Global Center for Combating Extremist Ideology in Riyadh, or\u00a0standing\u00a0at the Western Wall in Jerusalem, Trump played the leader of a superpower. His hosts went along.<\/p>\n
King Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted a warm, public interaction with the U.S. president, something neither had with former U.S. President Barack Obama. Trump delivered.<\/p>\n
But in policy terms, the trip did not address how Trump will grapple with the core problems the United States has with each of these close allies, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Trump is an entertainer, not a diplomat. The Mideast leg of this trip reinforced that he values imagery over policy.<\/p>\n
As an\u00a0expert<\/a>\u00a0on U.S.\u00a0policy<\/a>\u00a0in the Middle East and on Arab-Israeli\u00a0relations, I think it is clear that Trump\u2019s hopes for regional stability or an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement \u2013 outcomes that require detailed policy \u2013 rest on shaky ground. Will he go beyond merely meeting Israeli and Saudi demands for positive public images and the exchange of kind words?<\/p>\n Helping Saudi Arabia, undermining Iran<\/strong><\/p>\n On the question of challenging Iran\u2019s alliances and regional leadership aspirations, Trump and Netanyahu spoke much more harshly than Obama. In his speech in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Trump\u00a0said<\/a>, \u201cIran has fueled the fires of sectarian conflict and terror. It is a government that speaks openly of mass murder, vowing the destruction of Israel, death to America, and ruin for many leaders and nations in this room.\u201d<\/p>\n But Trump has not yet tried to undo the 2015\u00a0Iran nuclear agreement<\/a>, despite his\u00a0campaign promises<\/a>. Perhaps he will try to squeeze the agreement indirectly by\u00a0increasing\u00a0sanctions against Iran on the basis of other issues, such as terrorism or human rights violations. But squeezing Iran would be a tough sell to U.S. rivals like Russia and China, or even major European allies who generally like the existing agreement with Iran.<\/p>\n Still, Trump\u2019s visit to Riyadh made clear he is firmly on Saudi Arabia\u2019s side in its\u00a0regional cold war<\/a>\u00a0with Iran. Iran and Saudi Arabia both aspire to be the leading power in the Middle East. They aren\u2019t fighting each other directly, but rather by arming and aiding allies in civil wars in nearby\u00a0Syria\u00a0and\u00a0Yemen<\/a>.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s deepening of the U.S. commitment to Saudi Arabia was most tangibly signaled by the massive\u00a0arms\u00a0commitment and the\u00a0disinterest\u00a0in both democracy and human rights questions or any public discussion of Saudi Arabia\u2019s role in the\u00a0war\u00a0in Yemen.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s short time in Saudi Arabia left the central contradiction of his approach unexplored. In\u00a0Trump\u2019s words<\/a>, the United States will successfully achieve \u201cthe aim of stamping out extremism\u201d with Saudi Arabia as a lead partner.<\/p>\n But how is that feasible when Saudi Arabia\u2019s\u00a0repressive\u00a0regime,\u00a0ideology<\/a>, and wealth have helped\u00a0create\u00a0the environment in which Islamist extremism thrives? The Saudi government is a dictatorship lacking protections for free speech or a free press. Moreover, though U.S.-Saudi cooperation on the matter has\u00a0improved\u00a0in recent years, private Saudi money has flowed to violent radicals, including al-Qaida.<\/p>\n Israeli-Palestinian peace?<\/strong><\/p>\n With the Israeli government, Trump changed the tone and atmospherics compared with Obama. Trump and the Israeli prime minister have similar worldviews and, in public, seem genuinely excited to be working together.<\/p>\n But even with this visit to Israel, it remains unclear how much U.S. policy will shift. Like Obama and many previous U.S. presidents, Trump has pressed Israel to\u00a0curtail\u00a0settlement\u00a0construction in the West Bank. He seems interested in solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and creating\u00a0peace, as he told both Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, although no process is yet apparent.<\/p>\n Is it bluster or substance?<\/strong><\/p>\n