Winter will be here before we know it, and speculations about what\u2019s in store have already begun.<\/p>\n
Many turn to natural cues, from observing the color of woolly bear caterpillars or judging how frantically squirrels are caching their winter food. Others turn to The Farmers\u2019 Almanac and National Weather Service, which have released extended forecasts for the coming season, in their annual attempts to gauge what\u2019s to be expected over the cold months.<\/p>\n
UConn researchers across multiple disciplines weigh in on the various methodologies, scientific or otherwise, for forecasting this year\u2019s winter for the Northeast.<\/p>\n
Extended Forecasters Have Their Say<\/strong><\/p>\n The National Weather Service three-month outlook<\/a> indicates equal chances for precipitation being above normal, below normal, or average for the northeastern United States for the next 90 days. In other words, there is no indication of anything unseasonal or out of the ordinary. Temperature-wise, however, there are indications that there is a 40-50 percent chance for continued above-normal temperatures from now through January, says atmospheric scientist and assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering Marina Astitha.<\/p>\n But she\u2019s wary of over-reliance on forecast for the coming months. \u201cAs a modeler, I would urge caution on how to interpret long-range forecasts,\u201d she says, noting that the most accurate forecasts are those given in the three- to five-day range.<\/p>\n Though long-range forecasts may not be straightforward, they can offer an approximation of the weather patterns we will experience. The way the National Weather Service Climate Center formulates these long-range forecasts is by using numerical models, statistical tools, and observations from previous decades, says Astitha.<\/p>\n \u201cThey cannot tell you what the exact weather will be in several months\u2019 time, but they can tell you about patterns and probabilities.\u201d<\/p>\n In contrast to the National Weather Service\u2019s outlook, the Farmer\u2019s Almanac<\/a> is calling for snowier than normal conditions this winter. Astitha points out that the Farmer\u2019s Almanac forecast doesn\u2019t reveal its methodology for making predictions. \u201cThe Earth is telling us what is happening if you look at the signs, so there might be some wisdom in the Farmer\u2019s Almanac predictions,\u201d she says. \u201cWith science we try to be more specific.\u201d<\/p>\n Reading Nature’s Signs\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n The timing and progression of seasonal events such as migrations, leaf emergence, and leaf senescence or aging is known as phenology.<\/p>\n David Wagner,\u00a0professor of ecology and evolutionary biology in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, says the reverse migrations of some insect species are sure signs of the changing season. Here in Connecticut, we are graced with two groups of insects that have impressive migrations \u2013 butterflies such as the Monarchs and dragonflies such as the strikingly large Green Darner. It may still be possible to catch a glimpse of these spectacular creatures as they prepare for their long journeys. The traffic picks up especially closer to the coastline, he says.<\/p>\n There are also less scientific, more anecdotal signals that many turn to, such as the woolly bear caterpillar, Pyrrharctia Isabella. <\/em>The caterpillars are believed to be harbingers of winter weather, based on their coloration. However, Wagner has doubts about these fuzzy forecasters.<\/p>\n The caterpillars\u2019 coloration includes both brownish-orange and black segments. Some people believe that greater proportions of black segments of \u201cwool\u201d on the caterpillars\u2019 thoracic and abdominal segments signify more weeks of snowfall, while caterpillars with more orange segments foretell average temperatures with only dustings of snow.<\/p>\n Wagner says this is implausible. \u201cI believe in climate models, I don\u2019t believe the woolly bears,” he says. “Plants and animals can\u2019t predict the future.\u201d<\/p>\n Another often cited signal of weather to come is the degree of winter preparations made by squirrels. The belief is that the more frantic the squirrels, the more severe the winter will be \u2013 and this year the squirrels seem especially active.<\/p>\n Associate extension professor in the College of Agriculture, Health, and Natural Resources and chair of the UConn Forest Management Committee Tom Worthley says the reason squirrels may appear to be more active this year is because nut crops were abundant in the previous two years, and this may have contributed to an increase in the squirrel population. In addition, this season there are fewer acorns available, due to the devastation caused by the gypsy moth caterpillars earlier in the year. The squirrels are not necessarily expecting an especially bad winter \u2013 setting aside food is simply what they do at this time of year; but in years with fewer acorns like this year, there is heightened competition for the available resources.<\/p>\n A ripple effect we may see from this abundance of squirrels, if they survive the winter, is a continued abundance of ticks, says UConn associate professor of pathobiology and tick-borne disease expert Paulo Verardi, also of CAHNR, noting that the offspring produced by this year\u2019s rodents will mean more hosts next year for the seemingly ever-growing tick population.<\/p>\n Though it may be true that plants and animals can\u2019t predict the future, working to understand the intricacies and responses within ecosystems is important, and can help us anticipate similar situations in the future.<\/p>\n How Citizen Science Can Help Improve Forecasting <\/strong><\/p>\n Astitha says citizen science is helping to make existing models more powerful. For example, homeowners and schools have been able to install weather stations and share their weather data with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service.<\/p>\n