{"id":138772,"date":"2018-06-13T07:18:05","date_gmt":"2018-06-13T11:18:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/?p=138772"},"modified":"2018-06-13T07:32:09","modified_gmt":"2018-06-13T11:32:09","slug":"op-ed-summit-kim-boosting-trumps-confidence-might-not-good-thing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/2018\/06\/op-ed-summit-kim-boosting-trumps-confidence-might-not-good-thing\/","title":{"rendered":"Op-ed: Summit with Kim is Boosting Trump’s Confidence. That Might Not Be a Good Thing"},"content":{"rendered":"

Moments after President Donald Trump shook North Korean leader Kim Jong Un\u2019s hand for the first time, Trump\u00a0pronounced<\/a>: \u201cWe will have a terrific relationship.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s snap judgment fulfilled his prediction before the June 12 summit\u00a0that he would be able<\/a>\u00a0to evaluate Kim\u2019s intentions \u201cwithin the first minute\u201d of meeting him.<\/p>\n

High-level politicians often think that they are experts at reading and influencing other leaders. They quickly come to believe that they are the world\u2019s leading authority on any counterpart they meet in person. For example, President George W. Bush was\u00a0so enamored<\/a>\u00a0with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that senior advisers launched a concerted campaign to curb his enthusiasm.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou\u2019re my man,\u201d Bush would say to Maliki. When advisers told the president he was undercutting U.S. efforts to pressure Maliki, Bush responded with incredulity: \u201cAre you saying I\u2019m the problem?\u201d<\/p>\n

If Trump follows this pattern I\u2019ve found when\u00a0studying the personal side of foreign policy<\/a>, he may believe that he now has special insight into Kim. And that means the dynamics of U.S. policymaking toward North Korea have changed. Having met Kim, the president will be even less likely to listen to experts in the intelligence and diplomatic communities.<\/p>\n

From first impressions to agreement<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hours after Trump and Kim first met, the two leaders emerged from their talks to sign a joint document. The U.S. is prepared to guarantee the regime\u2019s security, and North Korea is willing to \u201cwork towards complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula,\u201d according to\u00a0the statement<\/a>. Trump called it a \u201cvery comprehensive agreement.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\"\"<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Critics\u00a0are charging<\/a>\u00a0that the letter was closer to North Korea\u2019s preferences than the \u201ccomprehensive, verifiable, irreversible de-nuclearization\u201d sought by the United States.<\/p>\n

Perhaps the document is underwhelming, repeating North Korean promises of the past without any clear road map to making them reality. But something significant changed in Singapore: President Trump has met Kim face to face.<\/p>\n

Intelligence<\/strong><\/p>\n

On the eve of the summit, details emerged of a\u00a0profile<\/a>\u00a0of Kim\u2019s personality, provided to the president by allied intelligence agencies.<\/p>\n

This is\u00a0standard practice<\/a>\u00a0prior to meetings with foreign leaders. But once the leaders have met in person, intelligence analysis takes second place to first-hand impressions.<\/p>\n

In the future, expert counsel on Kim\u2019s intentions may clash with Trump\u2019s positive perception of the North Korean leader. In the post-summit\u00a0press conference<\/a>, Trump called Kim \u201cvery talented.\u201d He\u00a0told journalist<\/a>\u00a0Greta van Susteren that Kim has \u201ca great personality, he\u2019s a funny guy, he\u2019s very smart. He loves his people.\u201d<\/p>\n

From now on, analyses from the diplomatic and intelligence communities that fit Trump\u2019s view of Kim will be favored, those at odds with his view may be dismissed.<\/p>\n

This dynamic is common in policymaking, and there are reasons to think it could be extremely consequential in this case.<\/p>\n

Relying on \u2018touch, feel\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

First, Trump\u2019s tendency to trust his instincts is already pronounced. Asked by a reporter before the summit how he would know if Kim was serious about de-nuclearization,\u00a0Trump said<\/a>\u00a0he would rely upon \u201cmy touch, my feel. It\u2019s what I do.\u201d<\/p>\n

Second, the intricate series of steps toward disarmament of a nuclear arsenal\u00a0require expert verification<\/a>. Ostensibly cooperative actions \u2013 like\u00a0destroying nuclear test tunnels<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 might turn out to be empty gestures once analysts have pored over the surveillance footage. The North Korean regime has a history of making public agreements, then advancing their nuclear arsenal in secret.<\/p>\n

This summit process began with a snap decision by Trump to accept an offer to meet with Kim. The most significant result may be Trump\u2019s new confidence that he uniquely understands the North Korean leader. This will further reinforce the defining dynamic of Trump\u2019s presidency so far: Ignore the experts, trust your gut.<\/p>\n

Originally published in The Conversation<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Having met Kim, the President will be even less likely to listen to experts in the intelligence and diplomatic communities, writes political scientist Stephen Dyson.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":76,"featured_media":138777,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_crdt_document":"","wds_primary_category":0,"wds_primary_series":0,"wds_primary_attribution":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2226,88,2225],"tags":[2078],"magazine-issues":[],"coauthors":[175],"class_list":["post-138772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-clas","category-global-affairs","category-uconn-storrs","tag-political-science"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-05-08 11:07:37","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts\/138772","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/users\/76"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=138772"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts\/138772\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":138780,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts\/138772\/revisions\/138780"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/media\/138777"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=138772"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=138772"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=138772"},{"taxonomy":"magazine-issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/magazine-issues?post=138772"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=138772"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}