Americans had to confront a new reality when an angry mob attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021: Some of their fellow citizens were in the grips of a false reality and had resorted to violence to support it.<\/p>\n
Conspiracy theories about the 2020 presidential election and the strange alternate universe of QAnon helped\u00a0drive the attack<\/a>, which has prompted concerns about further\u00a0domestic upheaval<\/a>.<\/p>\n In the year since, a flurry of studies and analyses have tried to gauge the American appetite for conspiracy theories and the likelihood of more violence \u2013 even civil war.\u00a0As someone<\/a>\u00a0who has studied the\u00a0conspiracy theories<\/a>\u00a0that followed the December 2012\u00a0mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School<\/a>, I keep revisiting a\u00a0May 2013 poll<\/a>\u00a0about gun control that found widespread doubts about that shooting and shockingly high support for armed rebellion.<\/p>\n Almost eight years before the Capitol was attacked by partisans bent on reversing the results of an election, nearly one-third of Americans surveyed \u2013 and a whopping 44% of Republicans \u2013 said in a 2013\u00a0PublicMind poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University<\/a>\u00a0that armed rebellion might soon be necessary in the U.S. to protect liberties.<\/p>\n The finding was so disconcerting that the poll was\u00a0dismissed<\/a>\u00a0by some prominent political observers as too unbelievable to be true.<\/p>\n Motivated Reasoning<\/strong><\/p>\n I recently interviewed the political psychologist who designed the poll, as well as a journalist who blasted its conclusions and now writes about the fallout from the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection.<\/p>\n Daniel Cassino<\/a>, a professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University and director of the FDU poll, said the 2013 survey sought to gauge the impact of motivated reasoning around gun policy.\u00a0Motivated reasoning<\/a>\u00a0is the emotional bias that can influence judgment or cause someone to dismiss facts that don\u2019t align with their beliefs.<\/p>\n \u201cIf reality doesn\u2019t fit what you want it to be, you have to change what you believe \u2013 or you have to change reality,\u201d Cassino explained.<\/p>\n That\u2019s where conspiracy theories come in. If you oppose firearm restrictions, then the slaughter of 20 first graders and six adults at an elementary school with an AR-15 is a real problem for you. Cassino explained: \u201cIt\u2019s easier for people who believe strongly in gun rights to\u00a0say it didn\u2019t happen<\/a>\u00a0rather than change their minds\u201d about guns.<\/p>\n One in four people surveyed in the 2013 poll said they believed the truth about the school shooting was being hidden to support a political agenda. Many others were unsure. People who opposed new gun control measures were more likely to have doubts about the shooting.<\/p>\n Cassino said the question about armed rebellion explored a belief that is normally attributed only to members of militias and extremist groups. The finding didn\u2019t necessarily indicate that regular people would pick up arms, but it did show this notion was becoming part of the Republican partisan identity, Cassino said.<\/p>\n \u201cThat is scary because once something becomes part of that belief structure, it becomes self-fulfilling,\u201d he said. The notion of a possible armed rebellion has since spread through the Republican Party and has been espoused by party\u00a0leaders<\/a>\u00a0and elected\u00a0officials<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThe actual armed insurrection that happened in January [2021] showed us this is a real strain in American politics that has gotten stronger and is not going away,\u201d Cassino said.<\/p>\n Motivated Coverage<\/strong><\/p>\n When the poll came out, some commentators used it to ridicule Republicans. Comedian Bill Maher, for example,\u00a0tweeted about the study<\/a>: \u201cSo \u2026 44% of Rep.s think an ARMED REBELLION might be necessary in the next few years. So if u say most Rep.s r f\u2013king nuts u\u2019d be off by 7%.\u201d<\/p>\n Others dismissed the findings entirely.\u00a0The Atlantic slammed<\/a>\u00a0the \u201cdoozy\u201d of a poll as \u201chighly questionable.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe poll is at-best semi-scientific and should probably not be taken seriously,\u201d Philip Bump wrote. \u201cIt certainly should not be written about by other media outlets.\u201d<\/p>\n Today, Bump is a\u00a0national correspondent<\/a>\u00a0at the Washington Post who specializes in the numbers behind politics and has\u00a0written about<\/a>\u00a0the Jan. 6 insurrection.<\/p>\n In a recent phone call, he told me he thinks his reaction to the 2013 poll was \u201cover the top.\u201d He still thinks Cassino\u2019s numbers seem high compared to some recent findings, but Bump said he would not dismiss the poll today like he did back then.<\/p>\n \u201cIt obviously takes on a much different light given the last eight years,\u201d he told me.<\/p>\n A Second Civil War?<\/strong><\/p>\n After the 2013 poll, Cassino said he was inundated with phone calls from people accusing him of being part of a conspiracy to take away guns. Many of the calls were made to his home number and were threatening. The calls, along with the negative media coverage, dissuaded him from asking about armed rebellion in future polls, he told me. Now, he wishes he had collected that data.<\/p>\n Just after the 2021 insurrection, a\u00a0Zogby Poll<\/a>\u00a0found nearly half of Americans \u2013 46% \u2013 thought another civil war was likely. The American Enterprise Institute\u00a0found<\/a>\u00a0that 4 in 10 Republicans thought\u00a0political violence<\/a>\u00a0may be necessary. A more recent survey published in November 2021 by the nonprofit\u00a0Public Religion Research Institute<\/a>\u00a0found that nearly one-third of Republicans \u2013 30% \u2013 agreed with the statement \u201ctrue American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country.\u201d<\/p>\n