Costigliola says that while Kennan was at first an influential voice in the instigation of the Cold War, he spent the next 50 years trying to ease relations between the Soviet Union and the United States. He tried to communicate to U.S. officials that, while Russia was a difficult country to contend with, the U.S. needed to understand the Russian perspective \u2013 if only to co-exist peacefully.<\/p>\n \u201cThe war in Ukraine is a horrible mess, and there\u2019s no justification for the war, but Kennan would emphasize that there is an explanation for its origin. Understanding that history is a prerequisite for successful diplomacy to prevail,\u201d says Costigliola, who teaches in the history department<\/a> in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences<\/a> and last month published both the biography \u201cKennan: A Life between Worlds<\/a>\u201d (Princeton University Press) and the essay \u201cKennan\u2019s Warning on Ukraine<\/a>\u201d in Foreign Affairs magazine.<\/p>\n Much of that history relates to the eastward expansion of NATO following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Costigliola says. In the late 1990s, Kennan, himself in his 90s, used his close ties to the Clinton administration to warn that allowing countries in Eastern Europe to join the U.S.-led alliance would be construed by Russia as a threat.<\/p>\n And, through the years, as country after country became NATO allies, Russian leaders registered their concern.<\/p>\n \u201cFrom the Russian perspective, when the Soviet Union broke apart, the understanding, encouraged by American officials, was that NATO would not advance eastward. That was not formally put into the agreement, but that\u2019s the sense Gorbachev gathered from the negotiations in 1990-91,\u201d Costigliola says. \u201cThat\u2019s what the Russians believed, and to a certain extent what people believe is important.\u201d<\/p>\n Even though Ukraine hasn\u2019t joined NATO, the addition of other countries on Russia’s borders and the West\u2019s military support of those countries – coupled with the United States\u2019 2019 withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, signed by Ronald Reagan in 1988 to eliminate medium-range U.S. and Russian missiles – were taken by Russia as unfriendly acts.<\/p>\n \u201cFrom the Russian perspective, the United States, with its military weapons and its intelligence support, is already involved in the war in Ukraine, and we have to recognize that entails a big risk. Kennan would emphasize that risk,\u201d Costigliola says. \u201cHe was a champion of diplomacy. He argued that even if at first the U.S. and Russia \u2013 or any party X and party Y \u2013 seem far apart and agreement seems unlikely, such divergence can be narrowed through diplomacy. Diplomacy is a process of secret, patient bargaining. Initial positions are just that, the asking price in an eventual deal.<\/p>\n \u201cThat\u2019s not to say diplomacy is an abracadabra waving of the wand,\u201d he continues. \u201cBut I think Kennan would advocate diplomacy, meaning negotiations by experts who know the opposing side well, who know the culture, history, and emotional disposition of those they are trying to reach an agreement with.\u201d<\/p>\n The potential for the annihilation of both the United States and Russia in a nuclear war can\u2019t be ruled out, Costigliola says. With regard to the war in Ukraine, \u201cIf diplomacy is not pursued and if unconditional surrender is unattainable, the only other alternative is catastrophe. What else is there?\u201d<\/p>\n Even after the United States dropped its two atomic bombs on Japan in World War II, the Japanese refused to surrender, he notes. The Japanese still insisted on retaining their emperor, a concession the United States agreed to in some last-minute diplomacy.<\/p>\n \u201cFrom Putin\u2019s point of view, the Russians were taken advantage of at the end of the Cold War,\u201d Costigliola says. \u201cWhile we may not agree, that belief, widespread in Russia, is a reality that we need to contend with.\u201d<\/p>\n Take the hypothetical: Imagine that China has a military alliance with Venezuela. Then, China begins to expand that alliance northward, recruiting nations in Central America and starts talking to Mexico. Of course, the United States would resent these moves, as no country wants hostile forces on their border.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Russians\u2019 perceptions are important. That\u2019s not to say that we have to give in to their side, but we have to take their perception into account in order to protect American interests, and Kennan knew that,\u201d Costigliola says.<\/p>\n He saw Russia, despite its bluster and aggression, as a nation with a perpetual inferiority complex regarding the U.S., Costigliola says: \u201cThe United States is far richer, far more successful, and far more powerful than Russia. America leads in technology, and it makes friends with other nations through soft power. The Russians have to build their alliances in more brutal ways. They often act out like a child. That\u2019s not to excuse their actions, but it helps to understand them.\u201d<\/p>\n Kennan understood Russia and knew what it was likely to do, Costigliola adds, which is why at the end of the Cold War he pushed for diplomacy. He wanted an understanding with Russia that would withstand the test of time and not fall apart in a few years, which would mean Russian interests had to be considered, even though Russia was temporarily weakened after the Soviet collapse.<\/p>\n A longstanding agreement in regard to Ukraine is just as important, Costigliola says.<\/p>\n \u201cThe war in Ukraine will eventually end with compromise; the question is, what kind of compromise,\u201d Costigliola says. \u201cWe need to remember that every day this war goes on, more people are killed. There\u2019s more infrastructure destroyed by the Russians, and Ukraine\u2019s rebuilding is going to be that much more difficult. The risk of escalation is present and increasing. It\u2019s a difficult situation. We need to keep our eyes open and realize the potential dangers.\u201d<\/p>\n He adds, \u201cIf there is a nuclear war, which is not out of the realm of possibility, the extent of the death and destruction would be mind-boggling. We tend to put that out of our minds and say no one wants that, so it can\u2019t happen, but that\u2019s just happy talk. Kennan understood the dangers.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ‘If diplomacy is not pursued and if unconditional surrender is unattainable, the only other alternative is catastrophe’ <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":160,"featured_media":195767,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_crdt_document":"","wds_primary_category":0,"wds_primary_series":0,"wds_primary_attribution":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2226,88,2235],"tags":[],"magazine-issues":[],"coauthors":[2368],"class_list":["post-195747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-clas","category-global-affairs","category-today-homepage"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-05-30 02:52:51","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts\/195747","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/users\/160"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=195747"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts\/195747\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":195890,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts\/195747\/revisions\/195890"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/media\/195767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=195747"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=195747"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=195747"},{"taxonomy":"magazine-issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/magazine-issues?post=195747"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=195747"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"In](\"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/GettyImages-515513432-300x202.jpg\")
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