{"id":241193,"date":"2026-02-17T07:01:18","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T12:01:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/?p=241193"},"modified":"2026-02-17T13:43:38","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T18:43:38","slug":"researchers-launch-initiative-to-improve-power-outage-predictions-and-grid-resilience","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/2026\/02\/researchers-launch-initiative-to-improve-power-outage-predictions-and-grid-resilience\/","title":{"rendered":"Researchers Launch Initiative to Improve Power Outage Predictions and Grid Resilience"},"content":{"rendered":"

Researchers at the University at Albany and University of Connecticut\u202fare working on a new initiative to better predict storm-related power outages, reduce restoration times, and strengthen the resilience of the electric grid.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The\u00a0initiative, called the\u00a0North American Forecasting\u00a0Weather, Outage, Load & Damage Initiative,\u00a0will create\u00a0a\u00a0scalable outage-prediction model\u00a0to\u00a0forecast system failures across the United States\u00a0and Canada.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The forecasting model is the latest\u00a0project\u00a0to\u00a0emerge\u00a0from\u00a0the\u00a0<\/span>Center for Weather Innovation and Smart Energy and Resilience<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(WISER).\u00a0Backed by a\u202f<\/span>grant from the National Science Foundation<\/span><\/a>,\u202fWISER was\u00a0established\u00a0in 2023 to\u00a0apply\u00a0the research and\u00a0expertise\u00a0at UAlbany and UConn to\u00a0solve challenges related to\u00a0energy\u00a0systems, now and in the future.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Chris\u00a0Thorncroft, director of UAlbany\u2019s\u202fAtmospheric Sciences Research Center\u00a0and Emmanouil \u201cManos\u201d Anagnostou, director of UConn\u2019s\u00a0Institute of Environment and Energy,\u00a0are\u00a0leading WISER for their respective universities.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAs the climate changes, extreme weather events are becoming increasingly disruptive and destructive,\u201d Thorncroft says. \u201cBy combining high-resolution weather forecasts with real-world outage data from utilities, we believe we can create tools that help keep the lights on and improve power grid resilience. This represents a first-of-its-kind collaboration that has the potential to reduce economic impacts from severe weather across the country.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Two
On right, Diego Cerrai, interim director of the UConn Eversource Energy Center and principal investigator of the WISER project at UAlbany on February 12, 2026. (Photo by Patrick Dodson \/ UAlbany)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cAnticipating storm impacts on the electric grid and its interdependent infrastructure would allow power utilities to work closely with state\/local governments, communities and other stakeholders to take preemptive steps, such as requesting out-of-state assistance, increasing readiness of repair teams, as well as community energy, conservation, and coordination, to mitigate the effects of storm impacts,\u201d Anagnostou says. Anagnostou is also a Board of Trustees Distinguished Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering, within the UConn College of Engineering.<\/span><\/p>\n

Smarter\u00a0Power Grid Forecasts<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The North American Forecasting Model will be a multi-year effort. The first phase will focus on local pilot regions, including New England, New York, and California. Later phases will expand to regional areas along the east and west coasts, followed by a full North American rollout if additional funding is available.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The\u00a0model\u00a0will\u00a0rely on UAlbany and UConn\u2019s\u00a0expertise\u00a0in\u00a0advanced weather models and artificial intelligence,\u00a0combined with\u00a0publicly available\u00a0outage data,\u00a0to\u00a0improve\u00a0system outage\u00a0predictions\u00a0over entire regions\u00a0and help\u00a0utilities\u00a0more efficiently\u00a0allocate\u00a0resources before storms.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201c<\/span>This novel initiative uses AI to unite data from North American energy companies, turning a massive amount of information into a survival guide for the grid,” <\/span><\/span>says Jan Woodcock, i<\/span><\/span>ndustry\u00a0<\/span>l<\/span>iaison\u00a0<\/span>o<\/span>fficer for WISER and the\u00a0<\/span>d<\/span>irector of\u00a0<\/span>o<\/span>perations for the NYS Weather and Climate Analytics Center of Excellence.<\/span><\/span> “Learning from the entire continent\u2019s history, our AI model\u00a0<\/span>doesn’t<\/span> just watch the weather\u2014it predicts damage before it happens, allowing us to keep the lights on and improve affordability.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Tens of millions of Americans are now facing higher utility bills after regulators approved dozens of rate hikes last year. Regulators green-lit 43 rate hikes across the country in 2025, totaling $11.6 billion in increases, according to an analysis by Power Lines. This is especially true in New York, where electricity bills have spiked 33% over the past decade on average, outpacing growth nationally.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Researchers involved with the new initiative say better outage forecasts could help utilities position crews more precisely, speed up restoration, and lower operating costs that ultimately impact rates.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe have spent more than a decade building and validating power outage prediction models through one-on-one collaborations with utilities,\u201d says Diego Cerrai, interim director of the UConn Eversource Energy Center and principal investigator of the project. \u201cThe North American Forecasting Model enables us to move beyond individual utility partnerships and, for the first time, to develop a scalable platform with national reach, contributing to improving the energy security of North America.\u201d<\/span> Cerrai is also an assistant professor in the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWeather affects every aspect of the power grid, especially with more frequent and impactful severe events threatening the reliability of an aging transmission infrastructure,\u201d says Jeff Freedman, research faculty at UAlbany\u2019s Atmospheric Sciences Research Center and project co-principal investigator. \u201cA critical component of maintaining a resilient energy system is our ability to predict, with precision, where and when weather-related power outages will occur. More accurate outage predictions help utilities better position crews in the field, reducing their costs, limiting disruptions to the power grid, and keeping electricity affordable for residential and commercial customers.\u201d<\/p>\n

Safeguarding the Energy Industry<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

During the week of Feb. 9, WISER hosted its third annual industry advisory board meeting at UAlbany. During the meeting, the WISER industry advisory board\u202fmembers announced $550,000 in support to launch the North American Forecasting Model, along with select other new research projects that are related to improving the energy industry.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

More than 30 project proposals were presented during\u00a0the meeting,\u00a0as well\u00a0as results from\u00a0the 10 projects funded last\u00a0year.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u201cWISER is delivering actionable insights to guide investments and strategies for resilient grid operations and prioritization methodologies, and tradeoff analyses to inform short- and long-term investments,\u201d Anagnostou says.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Two
Francesco Rouhana,
UConn postdoctoral research associate presenting at UAlbany on February 12, 2026. (Photo by Patrick Dodson \/ UAlbany)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

WISER\u2019s industry advisory board consists of energy industry executives from Avangrid, Central Hudson Gas & Electric Corp, Con Edison, Eversource Energy,\u00a0HydroQu\u00e9bec, National Grid, New York Power Authority, New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, New York State Foundation for Science, Technology, and Innovation and Pacific Gas and Electric Company, NASA and S<\/span>outhern California Edison.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The WISER research team includes faculty from UAlbany\u2019s Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences and College of Emergency Preparedness, Homeland Security and Cybersecurity and UConn\u2019s College of Engineering, School of Business, and the College of Agriculture, Health and Natural Resources. \u202f<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Backed by a\u202fgrant from the NSF,\u202fWISER was\u00a0established\u00a0in 2023 to\u00a0apply\u00a0the research and\u00a0expertise\u00a0at UAlbany and UConn to\u00a0solve challenges related to\u00a0energy\u00a0systems<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":185,"featured_media":241194,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_crdt_document":"","wds_primary_category":0,"wds_primary_series":0,"wds_primary_attribution":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1866,2460,2648,2709,2387,2235],"tags":[],"magazine-issues":[],"coauthors":[2445],"class_list":["post-241193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-engr","category-faculty","category-blue-research","category-security","category-sustainability","category-today-homepage"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-04-26 00:35:47","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241193","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/users\/185"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=241193"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241193\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":241276,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241193\/revisions\/241276"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/media\/241194"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=241193"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=241193"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=241193"},{"taxonomy":"magazine-issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/magazine-issues?post=241193"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/today.uconn.edu\/wp-rest\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=241193"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}